Decision Theory
1. “Classic & Current Notions of Measurable Utility,” The Economic Journal – London, 1954, Vol. LXIV, pp. 528-556
2. “Presidents as Perfect Detonators,” (Art of Coercion), one of the Lowell Lectures on The Art of Coercion: A Study of Threats in Economic Conflict and War, Lowell Institute, Boston, 1959
3. “Risk, Ambiguity, & the Savage Axioms,” reprinted November 1961, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. LXXV, 1961, pp. 644-661.
4. “The Crude Analysis of Strategic Choices,” condensed & published format, 12/15/60
5. “The Political Uses of Madness” (Art of Coercion), one of the Lowell Lectures on The Art of Coercion: A Study of Threats in Economic Conflict and War, Lowell Institute, Boston, 1959
6. “The Theory and Practice of Blackmail” (Art of Coercion), one of the Lowell Lectures on The Art of Coercion: A Study of Threats in Economic Conflict and War, Lowell Institute, Boston, 1959
7. “Theory of the Reluctant Dualist,” American Economic Review, Vol. XLVI, December 1956, pp. 909-923. Reprinted in Bargaining: Formal Theories of Negotiation, ed. Oran R. Young, University of Illinois Press, Urbana, 1975.
8. “Vagueness & Decision – A Rejoinder,” pre-publication version, for Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1963
Vietnam
9. “Betting on the Third Wave,” 10/11/68
10. “Coercive Diplomacy in the Light of Vietnam: Some Preliminary Notes,” 11/17/70
11. “Escalating in a Quagmire,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Los Angeles, 9/20/70. (Awarded the Association’s 1971 Pi Sigma Alpha Award for best paper presented at the 1970 meeting.)
12. “Notes on Vietnam Policy – A Strategy of Dissent,” 1/21/70
13. “Revolutionary Judo,” RAND, June 1971 / January 1970 [this says January 1970 but draft says July 1970…?]
14 “Some Lessons from Failure in Vietnam,” RAND, 10/4/68
15. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 1 – “US Aims and Leverage in Vietnam, 1950 – 1965“
16. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 2 – “Critical Postures on US Decision-making in Vietnam: Multiple Choice,” June 1969
17. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 3 – “US Policy and the Politics of Others,” July 1969
18. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 4 – “Vu Van Thai on US Aims & Intervention in Vietnam,” July 1969
19. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 5 – “Confucians & Communists,” July 1969
20. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 6 – “On Pacification Comments By Thai & Ellsberg,” July 1969
21. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 7 – “Communists & Vietnamese, Comments by Hoang Van Chi,” August 1969
22. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 8 – “US Support of Diem: Comments by Vu Van Thai,” July 1969
23. Working Notes on Vietnam, No. 9 – “Infeasible Aims & the Politics of Stalemate,” July 1969